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Real Options And Investment Incentives Friedl Gunther

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Our Awards Booktopia's Charities. Are you sure you would like to remove these items from your wishlist? This means that the expected cash flow for the first quarter will be zero, and have positive values for the subsequent quarters due to the positive drift.

Lesson 3 9 Real Options Valuing R&D

Since the analysis is entirely based on the marginal effect of hiring employees, the fixed costs of the company are not considered. The choice of these rate values is justified by the desire to represent the values observed in the Brazilian economy in the last decade. As mentioned before, the uncertain variable modeled using the Cox et al. As the uncertainty modeled in the binomial tree is Q t , the Quantity of goods sold marginally and applying Eq.

So after calculating the binomial tree of Q t , with 9 a second lattice is directly obtained for corresponding MC t. At the end of this MC lattice we start exerting the option of maximization with Eq. Therefore, this lattice model has no dividend yield since it already is a Cash Flow Lattice. At the end of the 40 th quarter period, the options are exercised and then discounted backwards, checking exercise or continuation at each period and nod, until time 0, where the expanded value is found. Both options Put and Call were calculated using similar models of binomial trees or lattice , the difference laying in the benefit incurred with each one of the options modeled.

This value disregards the real option of laying an employee off during that period, which is similar to cases where there is employment stability. Therefore we will have:. It should be noted that this salary increase would also increase the payment of labor costs in 4. Therefore, it could bring these other benefits to both without loss to the company in terms of present value of cash flows, in accordance with the model's premises.

In order to analyze the sensitivity of the results to the volatility of the employee's productivity, the results are shown for four different scenarios of annual volatility. Thus, it becomes possible to estimate the impact arising from introducing the 3-day increase per year of service on the basis of calculating the indemnified prior notice. Simply take the differences between the values of the figures presented above, as can be seen in Table 2. The model also allows you to calculate the loss of the employee's net present value analyzed in relation to the exclusive function of the FGTS fine.

Thus, it will be assumed that there is no need for a prior notice and that the employment agreement is ended as soon as the employer decides to do so, without a need of indemnity for the subsequent month nor payment of payroll charges such as the deposit of FGTS. It can also be noticed that the amount of the FGTS fine itself in this scenario will be slightly lower since there will be no payment of FGTS by the period of the prior notice.

In Fig. It should be noted that this decision is not the most appropriate for this case under analysis because in this way the company would renounce the real option of offering the incentive only to those employees that it has an expectation that they will bring a financial return on the investment made of paying for the graduate studies course. Because private companies not only set up the option to institute incentive programs for graduate studies, but also maintain the option of dismissal in Brazil, even with the payment of severance costs cited in this study, it is best to analyze jointly the options of graduate study incentive programs and dismissal in both cases of the employer covering the costs or not.

It can be noticed, based on the results presented in Figs. It can also be observed, as expected, that the volatility of the employee's productivity exerts a wide difference on the results, while it is important that every employer properly assess this parameter, even if intuitively, in order to make the best decision.

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Finally, it should be pointed out that a graduate course can impact differently the performance and the salary of a professional. Different careers are affected in different ways, which makes it important that this study analyzes the different parameters for the salary increase and to increase the employee's performance. Even though the legal imposition of costs when dismissing employees without just cause brings a financial benefit to employees and their families at a moment they are economically weak, as well as it being a factor that can protect jobs during recessionary times, this study suggests that, on the other hand, it partially removes the employee's economic value.

This can cause the company to not hire the potential employee or to limit the salary being offered to a lower level than compared to the situation in which the dismissal without just cause is free of extra costs, especially in sectors of the economy where there is a high volatility in revenues.


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  • The situation in which the company decides not to hire an employee can occur when, although intuitively, the employer considers that the net present value is negative for the company when hiring the employee. As the study shows for a base case in Brazil, the decline in the net present value of the employee for the company can be significant in the presence of costs when terminating the work contract, which can cause an employee with a potential positive NPV that may be contracted into an employee that is no longer wanted.

    When analyzing the economy as a whole, one can infer, therefore, that the existence of these expenses can negatively impact the level of employment in a situation of equilibrium. In cases where, regardless of the existence of severance costs, the employee's NPV is positive for the company only varying the amount , the results of this study may suggest that the employee could demand a higher salary in the situation where there are no severance expenses when exercising the option to dismiss the employee. In the base case studied, if the salary and other compulsory labor amounts of the employee that can be dismissed by the company without severance costs were increased by 4.

    If the prior notice were 30 days regardless of length of service, the loss would be 3. If there were just the FGTS fine as severance costs, the salary loss would be 2. It should be noted, however, that this study sought to analyze the corporate decisions of hiring an employee and termination of a work contract without just cause considering only the financial aspect. However, there are several emotional factors that influence the decision to hire and dismiss a worker. One of them is that many employers find it difficult to let their employees know about their dismissal because it usually implies in great economic hardship for the worker's family.

    Furthermore, the dismissal of one or more employees of a company entails in a reduction in the morale of the other employees, which negatively impacts the organizational climate and hence productivity. Because of this, some employers might postpone the decision to dismiss an employee even if the delay may seem economically disadvantageous to the company. Regarding the graduate study incentive program in which the company is willing to pay all or part of the cost of a graduate course for an employee, this study shows that the offer of the benefit only for the best performing employees offers a positive average return while the indiscriminate offering to all employees in the beginning of their career can result in a negative NPV.

    This means more than five times the salary of the employee in question. Therefore, this decision is not the most appropriate for this case under analysis because in this way the company would renounce the real option of offering the incentive only to those employees that it has an expectation that they will bring a financial return on the investment made of paying for the graduate studies course.

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    Some limitations are present in the methodology presented. The model assumes that the worker's remuneration is fixed, with no variable part. However, it is common for companies to offer variable compensation. This restriction was imposed solely because of wanting to calculate the FGTS fine analytically in the binomial model. When examining only other types of costs of exercising the option of dismissal or when using a Monte Carlo Simulation, this restriction can be made flexible.

    Real Options In Practice

    Furthermore, the model does not consider the employee's salary progression. The impacts on the company's organizational climate due to laying off employees were also not considered. This implies in an extra cost since in order to prevent or reverse a worsening in the organizational climate, the company will incur more expenses. Although severance costs may decrease employee's net present value for the company, including making the salary lower than it would be if there were no such costs, this paper does not suggest that the protection of dismissal without just cause is bad for the employee or for the economy, since the benefits of these measures were not analyzed.

    Barros, P. The impact of regulations on Brazilian labor market performance. Accessed Black, F. The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. The Journal of Political Economy, 81 , Brady, M.

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    Human resources, temporary employment contracts and strategic use of real options. In Proceedings of the annual international conference on real options.


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